The Pernicious Myth of Demographic Fatalism

An 80% Jewish majority is expected by 2035 in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel and Judea & Samaria. Such a majority would be attained by leveraging the current 67% Jewish majority, the robust Jewish demographic tailwind, the unique Aliya potential, and a long overdue demographic policy to-be-adopted by the Jewish State and world Jewry.  There is no demographic time bomb; there is a demographic scarecrow bomb.

Demographic Optimism; Not Fatalism

In March 1898, Shimon Dubnov, a leading Jewish historian-demographer, projected a population of 500,000 Jews west of the Jordan River by the year 2000. However, in 2000 there were 5 million Jews west of the Jordan River!  On the eve of Israel's 1948 Declaration of Independence, Prof. Roberto Bachi, the founder of Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, contended that – under the best case scenario - there would be 2.3MN Jews in the Land of Israel by 2001, constituting a 33% minority.  In 2001, there was a solid 60% Jewish majority, of five million, west of the Jordan River. Since 1948 Israel's demographic establishment declared that no massive Aliya was expected.  Three million Olim have arrived!

BURSTING THE DEMOGRAPHIC BUBBLE

The assumption that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean has eroded confidence in the future of the Jewish State.  It has also triggered the thesis that Israel must, supposedly, retreat from Jewish geography (Judea and Samaria), in order to secure Jewish demography. This assumption has facilitated the recent entrenchment of the Two State Solution.

Demographic Optimism, Not Pessimism

According to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, the annual number of Jewish births has increased by 40% between 1995 (80,400) and 2007 (112,543), while the annual number of “Green Line” Arab births has stabilized around 39,000 during the same period.  The secular Jewish sector is mostly responsible to the impressive increase, especially Soviet Olim, who shifted from Russian fertility rate of 1 child per woman to the secular Israeli Jewish rate of 2.2 children. Arab-Jewish fertility gap has been reduced from 6 children per woman in 1969 to 0.7 child in 2007!  Arab fertility rate (3.5 births per woman) has declined 20 year faster than projected – due to successful integration into Israel’s health, educational, financial and commercial infrastructures - while Jewish fertility rate is rising (2.8 births per woman).

Israel's 60 Years of Breakthrough Economy - Wall Street Overpowers Gaza Strip

The 1948-2008 series of Arab-Israeli wars, coupled with Palestinian terrorism, have been bumps on the path of unprecedented Israeli economic growth: From a $1.2 billion GDP in 1948 to a $170 billion GDP in 2007! From a labor and land-intensive import-based economy, which is vulnerable to security and political uncertainty, to an increasingly know-how intensive export-driven economy, which is less vulnerable to wars and terrorism.

IT'S AMERICAN INTERESTS, STUPID!

Recent congressional hearings about the destruction, by Israel's air force, of a Syrian-North Korean nuclear facility, has shed light on the mutually-beneficial nature of US-Israel relations. The September 2007 Israeli military operation in Syria has dealt a setback to the Syria-North Korea-Iran-Hizballah axis, while advancing US and Israeli interests. It has bolstered US posture of deterrence, has extended US' strategic arm and has provided the US with vital information to penetrate Russian air defense systems, which are also employed by Iran. It has refuted the claim that US-Israel relations have been shaped by political expediency.

Stop Foreign Aid to the Palestinians

A 57% majority of Americans oppose foreign aid to Palestinians, according to a February 2006 Gallup poll. They know that persisting in financial assistance to a rogue regime amounts to a repeat of past mistakes, rather than learning from them.

Gaza Disengagement - Undermining U.S. Interests

Abu Mazen - A New Palestinian Regime?

The US would not negotiate with any member of the Taliban or Ba'th regimes. A prerequisite for the emergence of a moderate Palestinian regime is the elimination of the current rogue Palestinian regime. A precondition for the holding of free Palestinian election, and for the attainment of a durable Israeli-Palestinian accord, is the uprooting of the regime, which has ruthlessly dominated the Palestinian scene since 1964. The old Palestinian regime has been the role model of international terrorism, inter-Arab treachery, serial non-compliance with agreements, hate education, corruption and suppression of Palestinian human rights.

THE LIMITS TO U.S. PRESSURE ON ISRAEL

Does the Department of State reflect the position of the US President, Congress and public toward Israel?

Does the US Administration express - exclusively or dominantly - the US position on Israel?

Does Israel's defiance of White House pressure undermine US-Israel relations, and are the bilateral relations advanced by Israeli submission to US pressure?