Demographic Trends in the Land of Israel, by Yakov Faitelson

Straight from the Jerusalem Cloakroom #239, February 06, 2011

The most comprehensive study on Jewish-Arab demographics was published on January 15, 2011 by Yakov Faitelson, Institute for Zionist Strategies.

The study sheds light on the surge of Jewish demography, especially among secular Israeli Jews, and on the sharp decline of Arab natural growth and population growth, as a result of a most successful Arab integration into Israel's infrastructures of modernity.

No ground to the claim that Jews are doomed to become a minority west of the Jordan River: In 2011 there is a 66% Jewish majority - in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel, Judea and Samaria – which benefits from a demographic tailwind.

Faitelson's findings support the conclusion of a World Bank September 2006 study which documented a 32% "inflation" in the number of Arab births, as reported by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

Demographic Trends in the Land of Israel (excerpts)
Yakov Faitelson
January 15, 2011

1.  "Despite 120 years of demographic calamity projections, the Jewish population in the Land of Israel succeeded to grow from a 5% minority to a 60% majority."

2.  "The expanded Jewish population (6,122,000) grows faster than the highest scenario of the 2007 projection made by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics.  The Arab population (1,573,000) grows in accordance with the lowest scenario."

3.  "According to the UN Population Division, the overall Middle East fertility rate peaked during the 1950s (6.33 births per woman) and declined gradually to 2.95 births in 2010."

4.  "The Jewish fertility rate has risen since 1995, reaching 2.9 in 2010."

5.  "In 2010, the Jewish fertility rate is 63% higher than Lebanon's, 53% higher than Iran's, 33% higher than Turkey's and Kuwait's, 23% higher than Saudi Arabia's, slightly higher than Egypt's and only 7% and 4% lower than Jordan's and Syria's  respectively."

6.  "The growth in Jewish fertility is driven by secular and not by religious or ultra-religious Jews.  Since 2003, there has been a decline in ultra-religious fertility…The surge in secular fertility is driven mainly by the Olim (immigrants) from the former USSR…Their children and grandchildren has adopted typical Israeli fertility rates. According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, Israeli-born Jewish fertility rate was over 3 births in 2009."

7. "Israeli Arab fertility rate has collapsed since the 1970s [due to a most successful integration into the infrastructures of education, employment, finance, politics, culture, sports, etc.]…It declined to 3.5 births per woman in 2009…By 2009 only 8.4% of 15 year old Arab women did not enroll in school."

8.  "In 1995, there were 2.34 Jewish births per 1 Arab birth.  In 2009-10, there were 3.12 Jewish births per 1 Arab birth."

9.  "The demographic trends within pre-1967 Israel are identical to those in Judea and Samaria…but, in a much faster pace.  The fertility rate of Judea and Samaria Arabs dropped from 6.44 births per woman in 1990 to 3.12 births in 2010...lower  than Israeli Arabs and substantially lower than the Jewish fertility rate in the Jerusalem region."

10.  "Net-emigration from the Palestinian Authority was 321,239 during 2007-1994, averaging about 23,000 annually."

11.  "Mustafa Khawaja of the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics: Net-emigration in 2007 reached about 60,000…Jordan recorded 44,000  and 63,000 net-emigration, during the first eight months in 2009 and 2008 respectively, through its-controlled international passages along the Jordan River."

12.  Professor Arnon Sofer, Haifa University, projected in 1987 that by 2000 there will be 4.2 million Jews and 3.5 million Arabs (1.5 of them in Judea and Samaria) between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. However, in 2000, the number of Jews was 5 million and the number of Arabs was indeed 3.5 million. But, in 2000, Professor Sofer added 1 million Arabs to his estimate of the population in Judea and Samaria."

[Prof. Sofer, a leading "Demographer of Doom", consistently precluded the possibility of a wave of Aliya (Jewish migration) from the USSR, even if the gates were to be open…]