In 1967, Israel demolished the military forces of Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Consequently, Israel developed the "Low Probability Arab Offensive" concept. The 1973 War – along with Mideast unpredictability and objective intelligence constraints - devastated that concept, threatening the Jewish State with oblivion.
In 2003, following the US occupation of Iraq, Israel recycled the "Low Probability" concept. Israel assumed that the US military in Iraq precluded the possibility of a conventional Arab offensive on Israel's eastern front – a lethal threat to Israel's "soft belly" (Jerusalem and greater Tel Aviv). However, in 2009, that concept has been rendered obsolete by the gradual US evacuation of Iraq and by the lowered US military profile in the Mideast, which have energized Mideast radicals. The gradual US withdrawal from Iraq should free Israel from the "Low Probability" delusion, thus preventing a 1973 War-like disaster.