The Multi-National Force in Southern Lebanon – Asset or Liability?

, October 30, 2006

The stationing of a Multi-National Force (MNF) in Southern Lebanon constitutes a liability, and not an asset.  It has been demonstrated by a recent confrontation between Israel's air force and a German battleship off the coast of Lebanon, by the French threat to hit Israeli aircraft on intelligence missions over Lebanon, and by UNIFIL's refusal to disarm Hizballah.

 

The MNF would create a short-term false sense of stability, while weakening Israel's long-term national security. It is destined to fail, to undermine Israel's war on terrorism, to strain Israel's ties with member nations and to erode Israel's strategic and deterrence posture in the US and in the Mideast.

Rosh Hashana’s Jewish Demographic Momentum

Straight from the Jerusalem Cloakroom #195, September 22, 2006

1.  Fish – and especially its head – is served on Rosh Hashana as an omen for multiplication.  The annual number of Jewish births in Israel has risen by 34% since 1995: 107,000 annual rate in 2006 compared with 80,400 in 1995.  The robust momentum is primarily derived from increased fertility rate among the one million Olim/immigrants from the former USSR.  They arrived with a typical Russian fertility rate of 1 birth per woman, but are rapidly approaching Israel's secular Jewish rate of 2-3 children per woman.  The annual number of Arab births – within Israel's Green Line – has stabilized during1995 – 2006 at 39,000. Stay tuned to the next Jewish Demographic Momentum in 20 years, when the current babies enter the reproduction cycle.

Jewish Demography Rises; Arab Demography Declines

Straight from the Jerusalem Cloakroom #194, August 25, 2006

1.  Arab fertility rate – within pre-1967 Israel – has decreased from 4.7 children per woman in 2000 to 4.0 in 2005 and 3.7 during the first months in 2006.  Arab fertility rate was 9.3 during the 1960s. Jewish fertility rate is creeping upward to 2.8 in 2006 from 2.7 in 2005, which is the highest in the industrialized world.

A WAKEUP CALL: THE COST OF INDECISIVENESS

Ynet Hebrew edition, August 06, 2006

Washington has urged Jerusalem to accelerate to 150 miles per hour on the road to destroying the capabilities of Hizballah, the Syria-Iran proxy, which murdered 300 Americans in Beirut in 1983 and is involved in anti-US terrorism in Iraq in 2006.  However, Jerusalem does not press the pedal to the metal, and does not exceed 80 miles per hour. The pro-Israel Wall Street Journal, which generally reflects the Bush-Cheney world view, has expressed the US disappointment: "Israel has pledged not to stop without disarming Hezbollah; a defeat for Israel will mean more danger and far more casualties down the road… President Bush's entire vision for the Middle East would suffer a severe setback if the current fighting ends with Hezbollah still a credible military force…" (August 1, 2006).

Why Ground Offensive?!

Ynet Hebrew edition, July 18, 2006

A comprehensive, decisive and disproportionate ground offensive is a prerequisite for denying Hizballah and Palestinian terrorism the capabilities to bomb the center of Israel, to whack the psyche of civilians in northern and southern Israel, and to hit sensitive Israeli defense and civilian installations. 

 

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